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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, September 30: what to know

California: no NWS warnings are in effect as of 12:32 PM, Sep 30 Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +1.8 °C (JJA 2026) · next CPC update October 8, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

1 active alert

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Elsewhere, upper-ridging will lead to a period of above-average temperatures over the western U.S. including highs into the 90s and low 100s for central/southern California and the Desert Southwest.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (CA)

Southern California

6 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Watch, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Santa Clarita Valley and Ventura County Beaches. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Watch, in effect until 9:00 PM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas, San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire and San Diego County Inland Valleys. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 5:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County Beaches and Malibu Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Elsewhere, upper-ridging will lead to a period of above-average temperatures over the western U.S. including highs into the 90s and low 100s for central/southern California and the Desert Southwest.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Extreme Heat Watch: 3 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (CA)

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The Southwest

10 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Elsewhere, upper-ridging will lead to a period of above-average temperatures over the western U.S. including highs into the 90s and low 100s for central/southern California and the Desert Southwest.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 8 (AZ, NM) · Flash Flood Warning: 1 (NM) · Flood Watch: 1 (NM)

The Gulf Coast

21 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation for Florida and coastal portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast including the coastal Carolinas, Thu-Wed, Oct 8-14.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of high winds for coastal portions of the Gulf Coast, Thu-Wed, Oct 8-14.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk areas with embedded Slight Risk areas cover from coastal Texas through the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians then the Southeast for Day4/Saturday and Day5/Sunday.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Watch: 8 (TX) · Flood Warning: 7 (TX) · Flood Advisory: 2 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 2 (TX, AL) · Heat Advisory: 1 (TX) · Special Weather Statement: 1 (TX)

The Southeast

5 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Statement: 2 (FL) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (FL) · Flood Warning: 1 (FL) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (FL)

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Sources

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