Winter outlook
El Niño tracker
The winter outlook that shapes this whole season, straight from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — the same monthly discussion forecasters use, in plain language.
NOAA’s current status
El Niño Advisory
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
- Latest ONI reading
- Jun–Aug 2026: +1.8 °C
- Next update
- October 8, 2026
What past strong El Niño winters actually brought
Oct–Mar rainfall in past strong El Niño winters, as % of the 1991–2020 normal — Los Angeles
6 of 7 of Los Angeles’s strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal; the driest (2015-16) got about 49% of normal. They have ranged from well below normal (49% of normal, 2015-16) to well above normal (198% of normal, 1997-98) — a tendency, not a guarantee.
| Winter | ONI (DJF) | Oct–Mar total | % of normal | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957-58 | 1.69 | 18.00 in | 135% | NCEI daily-summaries |
| 1972-73 | 1.55 | 20.89 in | 156% | NCEI daily-summaries |
| 1982-83 | 2.14 | 24.88 in | 186% | NCEI daily-summaries |
| 1991-92 | 1.54 | 20.41 in | 153% | NCEI daily-summaries |
| 1997-98 | 2.22 | 26.44 in | 198% | NCEI daily-summaries |
| 2015-16 | 2.50 | 6.59 in | 49% | NCEI daily-summaries |
| 2023-24 | 1.84 | 21.39 in | 160% | NCEI daily-summaries |
Where the index stands
How much warmer than normal the tropical Pacific is (NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index)
| Season | ONI (°C) |
|---|---|
| Jul–Sep 2021 | -0.5 °C |
| Aug–Oct 2021 | -0.6 °C |
| Sep–Nov 2021 | -0.8 °C |
| Oct–Dec 2021 | -0.9 °C |
| Nov–Jan 2021 | -0.8 °C |
| Dec–Feb 2022 | -0.8 °C |
| Jan–Mar 2022 | -0.7 °C |
| Feb–Apr 2022 | -0.8 °C |
| Mar–May 2022 | -0.9 °C |
| Apr–Jun 2022 | -0.8 °C |
| May–Jul 2022 | -0.7 °C |
| Jun–Aug 2022 | -0.7 °C |
| Jul–Sep 2022 | -0.8 °C |
| Aug–Oct 2022 | -0.9 °C |
| Sep–Nov 2022 | -0.9 °C |
| Oct–Dec 2022 | -0.8 °C |
| Nov–Jan 2022 | -0.7 °C |
| Dec–Feb 2023 | -0.6 °C |
| Jan–Mar 2023 | -0.3 °C |
| Feb–Apr 2023 | -0.1 °C |
| Mar–May 2023 | +0.2 °C |
| Apr–Jun 2023 | +0.5 °C |
| May–Jul 2023 | +0.7 °C |
| Jun–Aug 2023 | +1.0 °C |
| Jul–Sep 2023 | +1.3 °C |
| Aug–Oct 2023 | +1.5 °C |
| Sep–Nov 2023 | +1.7 °C |
| Oct–Dec 2023 | +1.9 °C |
| Nov–Jan 2023 | +2.0 °C |
| Dec–Feb 2024 | +1.8 °C |
| Jan–Mar 2024 | +1.5 °C |
| Feb–Apr 2024 | +1.2 °C |
| Mar–May 2024 | +0.8 °C |
| Apr–Jun 2024 | +0.4 °C |
| May–Jul 2024 | +0.2 °C |
| Jun–Aug 2024 | +0.1 °C |
| Jul–Sep 2024 | -0.0 °C |
| Aug–Oct 2024 | -0.1 °C |
| Sep–Nov 2024 | -0.2 °C |
| Oct–Dec 2024 | -0.3 °C |
| Nov–Jan 2024 | -0.4 °C |
| Dec–Feb 2025 | -0.5 °C |
| Jan–Mar 2025 | -0.2 °C |
| Feb–Apr 2025 | -0.1 °C |
| Mar–May 2025 | +0.0 °C |
| Apr–Jun 2025 | -0.0 °C |
| May–Jul 2025 | -0.0 °C |
| Jun–Aug 2025 | -0.1 °C |
| Jul–Sep 2025 | -0.3 °C |
| Aug–Oct 2025 | -0.4 °C |
| Sep–Nov 2025 | -0.6 °C |
| Oct–Dec 2025 | -0.6 °C |
| Nov–Jan 2025 | -0.6 °C |
| Dec–Feb 2026 | -0.4 °C |
| Jan–Mar 2026 | -0.2 °C |
| Feb–Apr 2026 | +0.1 °C |
| Mar–May 2026 | +0.5 °C |
| Apr–Jun 2026 | +0.9 °C |
| May–Jul 2026 | +1.4 °C |
| Jun–Aug 2026 | +1.8 °C |
What this means for California
An El Niño winter tends to push the Pacific storm track farther south, which historically has meant a wetter-than-usual season for Southern and Central California and a more active pattern of storms arriving back-to-back. Northern California’s odds shift less either way.
That’s a tendency, not a promise. Some El Niño winters bring a string of big storms; others turn out quieter than expected, and a strong ENSO signal doesn’t say which storm, if any, will hit your address or how hard. Check NOAA’s own seasonal outlook for the current forecast, not a number on this page.
The moves that matter don’t change based on the ENSO status: know your flood, fire and landslide risk, clear your gutters and drains before the rain starts, and have a kit ready. That’s what the rest of this site helps with.
See what these storms could mean at your own address.